See the System, Not Just the Parts
When something keeps failing, look at how the parts interact rather than blaming individual pieces.
22
Inner World
Thinking
Critical thinking, cognitive biases, decision-making, and learning to see clearly. The operating system behind everything else.
125 advices
Think in Probabilities, Not Certainties
Assign rough probabilities to outcomes instead of pretending you know what will happen for certain.
9
Beware the Peak of False Confidence
If you feel like an expert after a short time learning something, you are probably at the peak of false confidence.
10
Don't Let the First Number Set the Frame
The first number you hear shapes every number after it — set your own reference point before someone else does.
11
Not Everything Is a Story
Your brain turns random events into neat stories — be suspicious of explanations that feel too clean.
12
Agreement Is Not Always a Good Sign
When everyone agrees too easily, it might mean nobody feels safe disagreeing — not that the idea is good.
21
Your News Feed Is Not the World
Your feed is optimized for engagement, not accuracy — consume news deliberately, not passively.
12
Assume Carelessness Before Malice
Before assuming someone meant to hurt you, consider that they might simply not have been thinking.
12
The Simplest Explanation Is Usually Right
Start with the explanation that requires the fewest assumptions — complexity should be a last resort.
8
You Only See the Winners
Success stories hide the failures — always ask how many people tried the same thing and did not make it.
18
Vivid Is Not the Same as Likely
Just because something is easy to remember does not mean it is likely to happen — check the actual odds.
13
Most \"Either/Or\" Choices Have a Third Option
When you feel forced to choose between two options, look for the third one your framing is hiding.
8
Happening Together Does Not Mean One Caused the Other
Two things happening together does not prove one causes the other — always look for hidden third factors.
6
Everything Takes Longer Than You Think
You always underestimate how long things take — plan based on how long they actually took last time, not how long you wish they would.
11
"I Knew It All Along" Is Almost Always a Lie
Hindsight bias rewrites your memory — you didn't predict it, you just remember it that way.
18
Nobody Is Watching You as Closely as You Think
The spotlight effect makes you think everyone noticed — they almost certainly didn't.
10
Bad News Is Stickier Than Good News
Negativity bias makes one bad thing outweigh many good ones — correct for it deliberately.
5
Don't Blame Character When the Situation Explains Everything
We blame others' character but excuse our own behavior by circumstances — the situation usually matters more.
10