The Simplest Explanation Is Usually Right

When you hear hoofbeats, think horses — not zebras. Occam's razor says that among competing explanations, the one that requires the fewest assumptions is most likely correct. Your colleague did not reply to your email? They are probably busy, not plotting against you. The project is behind schedule? Scope creep is more likely than sabotage.

This does not mean the simple answer is always right — sometimes it really is zebras. But starting with the simplest explanation saves you from spiraling into conspiracy theories and overcomplicating decisions that have straightforward solutions. Complexity should be a last resort, not a first instinct.