Happening Together Does Not Mean One Caused the Other

Ice cream sales and drowning deaths both rise in summer. That does not mean ice cream causes drowning — they share a common cause (hot weather). Confusing correlation with causation is one of the most common thinking errors, and it shows up everywhere: in headlines, in business strategy, and in your own reasoning about what works in your life.

When you notice that two things tend to happen together, resist the urge to build a causal story. Ask three questions: Could A cause B? Could B cause A? Could something else cause both? The world is full of coincidences that look like causes, and recognizing the difference saves you from acting on false conclusions.