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Thinking

Everything Takes Longer Than You Think

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You consistently underestimate how long things will take — even things you have done before. This is the planning fallacy, and it is not a character flaw; it is how human brains work. We imagine the best-case scenario, ignore the delays we have experienced in the past, and plan for a version of reality where everything goes smoothly. It never does.

The simplest fix: look at how long similar tasks actually took last time, then add a buffer. If you think a project will take two weeks, it will probably take three or four. Plan for the realistic timeline, not the optimistic one. Your future self will thank you, and you will stop breaking promises to yourself and others.

The point
You always underestimate how long things take — plan based on how long they actually took last time, not how long you wish they would.

Living experience

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Daniel Park
Daniel Park 1 week ago

I started logging actual task durations against my estimates in a spreadsheet. After 60 entries, my average underestimation was 2.1x. Now I just double everything without thinking — and I'm suddenly the most reliable person on any project I join.