What Has Lasted Long Will Probably Last Longer
Time is the most ruthless filter — what survived it has proven its worth.
12
Inner World
Thinking
Critical thinking, cognitive biases, decision-making, and learning to see clearly. The operating system behind everything else.
125 advices
Behind Extreme Outcomes Usually Lies a Return to the Mean
Exceptional results — good or bad — tend to be followed by ordinary ones.
8
Big Failures Are Made of Small Compromises
Disasters accumulate through small, reasonable-seeming compromises.
17
When Stuck, Explain the Problem to Someone Who Knows Nothing About It
Explaining a problem simply often reveals exactly where your understanding breaks.
11
Write Down Your Prediction Before Looking at the Result
Committing predictions to paper reveals where your intuition is calibrated and where it isn't.
19
Flip the Perspective: What Would You Tell a Friend in This Situation?
The advice you'd give a friend in your situation is probably the right advice for you.
10
A Properly Framed Problem Is a Half-Solved Problem
A clear problem statement is half the solution — most bad answers come from vague questions.
5
Generate Ideas First, Criticize Later — Never Do Both at Once
Separate creation from evaluation — judging too early kills promising ideas.
6
Approximate First, Refine Later
A quick rough estimate often reveals more than a slow precise one.
10
Use the Outside View Before the Inside View
Check how similar projects went for others before trusting your own estimate.
23
Ask What You Are Not Being Told
The most revealing information is often what someone chose not to tell you.
10
Do Not Mistake a Label for an Explanation
A label describes the pattern; an explanation reveals why it exists.
12
Know the Difference Between Simple and Easy
Simple means few steps; easy means low effort — most important changes are one but not the other.
6
Confusion Is a Signal to Zoom In, Overwhelm Is a Signal to Zoom Out
Confusion needs more detail; overwhelm needs more altitude — know which state you are in.
5
The Truth Is Often in the Middle, but Not Always Dead Center
Splitting the difference is not the same as finding the truth.
21
Reading About Clear Thinking Is Not the Same as Thinking Clearly
Knowing about biases and actually avoiding them are different skills entirely.
5
What to Do When You Realize You've Been Wrong About Something for Years
Changing your mind openly earns more respect than defending a position you no longer believe.
8
Know When to Decide Fast and When to Decide Slow
Move fast on decisions you can undo and slow down on decisions you cannot.
11