Beware the Peak of False Confidence

When you first learn something, there is a dangerous moment where you know enough to feel confident but not enough to see what you are missing. This is the Dunning-Kruger effect: beginners overestimate their competence because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own gaps. Meanwhile, experts often underestimate themselves because they see how much more there is to learn.

The practical lesson is not to distrust all confidence — it is to be especially cautious when you feel certain about something you recently picked up. If you have been doing something for six months and feel like an expert, that is a signal to slow down and look for what you might be getting wrong.