Vivid Is Not the Same as Likely

You are more afraid of shark attacks than car accidents, even though cars are thousands of times more dangerous. Why? Because shark attacks are vivid and memorable, while car accidents are mundane. The availability heuristic means you judge how likely something is based on how easily you can recall an example — not on actual statistics.

This distorts your risk assessment constantly. A plane crash on the news makes you fear flying, even though your drive to the airport was statistically riskier. A dramatic fraud story makes you distrust everyone, even though most people are honest. When you feel a strong sense of danger, pause and ask: "Am I reacting to the probability or the vividness?"