Use the Outside View Before the Inside View
Check how similar projects went for others before trusting your own estimate.
23
Inner World
Thinking
Critical thinking, cognitive biases, decision-making, and learning to see clearly. The operating system behind everything else.
125 advices
Ask What You Are Not Being Told
The most revealing information is often what someone chose not to tell you.
10
Do Not Mistake a Label for an Explanation
A label describes the pattern; an explanation reveals why it exists.
12
Know the Difference Between Simple and Easy
Simple means few steps; easy means low effort — most important changes are one but not the other.
6
Confusion Is a Signal to Zoom In, Overwhelm Is a Signal to Zoom Out
Confusion needs more detail; overwhelm needs more altitude — know which state you are in.
5
The Truth Is Often in the Middle, but Not Always Dead Center
Splitting the difference is not the same as finding the truth.
21
Reading About Clear Thinking Is Not the Same as Thinking Clearly
Knowing about biases and actually avoiding them are different skills entirely.
5
What to Do When You Realize You've Been Wrong About Something for Years
Changing your mind openly earns more respect than defending a position you no longer believe.
8
The Map Is Not the Territory
Treat your understanding of the world as a working draft, not a finished document.
16
Strong Opinions, Loosely Held
Have the courage to commit to your ideas, and the honesty to abandon them when proven wrong.
12
You Don't Know What You Don't Know
Build the habit of asking what you might be missing before you decide.
12
Most Problems Look Different When You Write Them Down
When a problem feels overwhelming, write it down — clarity usually follows.
10
Think from First Principles
When the usual approach fails, break the problem down to what you know for certain and reason up from there.
7
You See What You Want to See
Actively seek out evidence against your beliefs — your brain will not do it for you.
22
Solve Problems Backwards
Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure — then avoid those things.
12
Don't Keep Digging Just Because You Already Dug the Hole
Past investment should not dictate future decisions — ask whether you would start the same thing today.
12
Think About the Consequences of Consequences
Before making a big decision, ask \"and then what?\" at least twice to see past the immediate outcome.
9
Argue Against the Best Version of the Other Side
Before you argue against an idea, make sure you can state it in a way its supporters would endorse.
5