Strong Opinions, Loosely Held
Have the courage to commit to your ideas, and the honesty to abandon them when proven wrong.
12
Thinking
Critical thinking, cognitive biases, decision-making, and learning to see clearly. The operating system behind everything else.
138 advices
Argue Against the Best Version of the Other Side
Before you argue against an idea, make sure you can state it in a way its supporters would endorse.
5
A Title Doesn't Make Someone Right
Authority bias makes us trust titles over reasoning — evaluate the argument, not the resume.
10
Think About the Consequences of Consequences
Before making a big decision, ask \"and then what?\" at least twice to see past the immediate outcome.
9
"It Can't Happen Here" Is How It Happens Here
Normalcy bias makes stability feel permanent — prepare for disruption while things are still calm.
20
Optimism Is Great for Morale, Terrible for Planning
Be optimistic about your goals but realistic about your plans — the brain defaults to best-case thinking.
12
Don't Blame Character When the Situation Explains Everything
We blame others' character but excuse our own behavior by circumstances — the situation usually matters more.
10
The Coin Doesn't Remember the Last Flip
Past random events don't influence future ones — the universe doesn't keep score.
8
Not Every Gain Requires Someone Else's Loss
Zero-sum thinking limits you — in many situations, both sides can win if you look for it.
9
More Choices Don't Always Mean Better Decisions
Too many options lead to paralysis and regret — sometimes limiting your choices is the path to satisfaction.
5
Bad News Is Stickier Than Good News
Negativity bias makes one bad thing outweigh many good ones — correct for it deliberately.
5
You Assume Others See the World the Way You Do
The false consensus effect makes you overestimate how many people share your views — ask instead of assuming.
7
Don't Keep Digging Just Because You Already Dug the Hole
Past investment should not dictate future decisions — ask whether you would start the same thing today.
12
You Overvalue What You Already Have
The endowment effect makes you overvalue what you own — ownership is not the same as worth.
6
Solve Problems Backwards
Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure — then avoid those things.
12
A Charming Person Can Still Be Wrong
The halo effect makes us assume that likeable people are also right — separate charm from competence.
23
Strong Feelings Make Weak Evidence Feel Strong
High emotion lowers your evidence threshold — when certainty feels strongest, scrutiny matters most.
11
Nobody Is Watching You as Closely as You Think
The spotlight effect makes you think everyone noticed — they almost certainly didn't.
10