What to Do When You Need to Decide but Lack Data
For reversible decisions, optimize for speed of learning; for irreversible ones, lean on your values.
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Thinking
Critical thinking, cognitive biases, decision-making, and learning to see clearly. The operating system behind everything else.
138 advice
What to Do When You're Sure You're Right and Everyone Else Disagrees
Before doubling down, actively try to disprove yourself — conviction that survives challenge is worth having.
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What to Do When Someone Presents "Facts" That Feel Off
Most dubious claims crumble under three honest questions — and if they hold up, update your view.
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What to Do When Your Gut Says One Thing and the Data Says Another
If your intuition comes from domain experience, listen to it; if it comes from discomfort, trust the data.
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What to Do When You Keep Going in Circles on the Same Problem
Circular thinking means a missing piece, not insufficient effort — write down your assumptions and find the wrong one.
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What to Do When Unexpected Success Comes Your Way
Honestly assess how much was skill, timing, and luck — accurate calibration beats false confidence.
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What to Do When You're Asked to Decide Under Pressure
Artificial urgency is a manipulation tactic — legitimate opportunities allow time for thought.
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The Map Is Not the Territory
Treat your understanding of the world as a working draft, not a finished document.
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Strong Opinions, Loosely Held
Have the courage to commit to your ideas, and the honesty to abandon them when proven wrong.
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You Don't Know What You Don't Know
Build the habit of asking what you might be missing before you decide.
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Most Problems Look Different When You Write Them Down
When a problem feels overwhelming, write it down — clarity usually follows.
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Think from First Principles
When the usual approach fails, break the problem down to what you know for certain and reason up from there.
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You See What You Want to See
Actively seek out evidence against your beliefs — your brain will not do it for you.
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Solve Problems Backwards
Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure — then avoid those things.
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Don't Keep Digging Just Because You Already Dug the Hole
Past investment should not dictate future decisions — ask whether you would start the same thing today.
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Think About the Consequences of Consequences
Before making a big decision, ask \"and then what?\" at least twice to see past the immediate outcome.
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Argue Against the Best Version of the Other Side
Before you argue against an idea, make sure you can state it in a way its supporters would endorse.
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See the System, Not Just the Parts
When something keeps failing, look at how the parts interact rather than blaming individual pieces.
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