Follow the Incentives and You'll Predict the Behavior
To understand behavior, look at incentives, not stated values — people respond to what they are rewarded for.
Critical thinking, cognitive biases, decision-making, and learning to see clearly. The operating system behind everything else.
To understand behavior, look at incentives, not stated values — people respond to what they are rewarded for.
Understand a rule's purpose before you decide it's unnecessary.
Removing what doesn't work often beats adding something new.
The first answer is usually a symptom — the root cause hides deeper.
Weigh advice by how much the advisor stands to lose if they're wrong.
What looks like a fixed trait is often a loop you can interrupt.
Consistent results reflect the system's design, not individual effort.
What's absent often reveals more than what's present.
Optimizing for a number often destroys the value it was meant to capture.
Time is the most ruthless filter — what survived it has proven its worth.
Exceptional results — good or bad — tend to be followed by ordinary ones.
Disasters accumulate through small, reasonable-seeming compromises.
Explaining a problem simply often reveals exactly where your understanding breaks.
Committing predictions to paper reveals where your intuition is calibrated and where it isn't.
The advice you'd give a friend in your situation is probably the right advice for you.
A clear problem statement is half the solution — most bad answers come from vague questions.
Separate creation from evaluation — judging too early kills promising ideas.
A quick rough estimate often reveals more than a slow precise one.