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Thinking

Write Down Your Prediction Before Looking at the Result

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Calibration practice: before checking the data, commit to what you expect. Write it down — don't just think it. Over time, you'll discover exactly where your intuitions are reliable and where they're not. This works for everything: project timelines, election outcomes, how a conversation will go. The written record prevents your memory from quietly editing your predictions after the fact.

The point
Committing predictions to paper reveals where your intuition is calibrated and where it isn't.

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