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Thinking

Use the Outside View Before the Inside View

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Before estimating how long your project will take, check how long similar projects took for others. This is called reference class forecasting, and it works because your inside view — how it feels from within — is almost always too optimistic. The outside view corrects for the planning fallacy by grounding your expectations in actual data rather than hopeful assumptions.

The point
Check how similar projects went for others before trusting your own estimate.

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