Think About the Consequences of Consequences

Every action has an immediate result and a cascade of results after that. First-order thinking asks "What happens next?" Second-order thinking asks "And then what?" The manager who cuts costs by firing experienced staff solves this quarter's budget — and creates next quarter's quality crisis.

You do not need to predict five steps ahead for every small decision. But for choices that are hard to reverse — career moves, financial commitments, relationship decisions — spending ten minutes on "and then what?" can save you years of cleanup. The best decisions tend to have painful first-order consequences and favorable second-order ones.