What to Do When You See a Scary Statistic

"Risk doubles!" is terrifying until you learn the baseline was one in a million, and doubling makes it two in a million — still nearly nothing. A relative number without its baseline is designed to alarm, not inform. Headlines favor the dramatic version because "doubles" sells better than "goes from 0.0001% to 0.0002%."

When a statistic scares you, ask one question before reacting: doubled from what, exactly? Find the absolute numbers behind the percentage, and decide how worried to be only after you have both.