Judging a Decision by Its Outcome Alone Is a Trap

A reckless bet that pays off looks like genius. A carefully considered decision that fails by bad luck looks like incompetence. This is outcome bias: we judge the quality of a decision by its result rather than by the process behind it. But luck is always a factor. Good decisions can have bad outcomes, and bad decisions can succeed by chance. If you only evaluate results, you'll learn the wrong lessons. Evaluate the reasoning, the information available at the time, and the process — not just what happened after.